Form Over Fame

Eleven minutes and eleven seconds on the clock. AEK Athens is on the counter-attack. A pass lands at the feet of Mauritanian international Aboubakary Koïta, who shuffles the ball to his left foot and shoots past Thibaut Courtois. In the top-left corner of the screenshot below, Yan Diomandé is in position to defend the right-hand side. In the bottom-left corner, number 7 is far away from his defensive zone as Koïta gets his shot in. Real Madrid would have dropped points but for a 92nd-minute golazo from Fede Valverde.

Should Mourinho keep Vinícius out of the XI for the next 6 games through Arsenal on Dec 9?

Vinícius is suspended for the next La Liga game against Valencia. After that, there are 4 more fixtures until Madrid travels to London to face Arsenal — a game that could signal how much progress Mourinho has achieved since he took over in the summer. Arsenal is last year’s Champions League finalist and reigning English champion. It also currently sits at the top of the table in England. And most importantly, Real Madrid has never won against it in the Champions League.

Over those six games, Arsenal included and barring fatigue or injury, Mourinho should field the best starting XI based on form. This standard must apply to every player in the squad with no exception made. It requires making the hard call of dropping Vinícius to the bench. The case for starting Vinícius is that as a player who scored in two Champions League final wins, he deserves time, patience and a system that works for him. However, after two years without La Liga or the Champions League, Madrid needs results, and that comes from picking a team based on form. So Vinícius does not start.

The case for benching Vinícius

Real Madrid is currently on a 7-game winning streak: 4 wins in La Liga and 3 in the Champions League. The first win came against Villarreal when Vinícius came off the bench and got sent off minutes later. While Madrid held on to the 1-0 lead to win, the hair pull on Nathan Saliba and subsequent protests earned Vinícius a 4-game suspension in La Liga. With Vinícius unavailable, Madrid cruised past Sevilla and Racing Santander, and most importantly went to the Camp Nou and beat Barcelona to reduce the deficit to 3 points at the top of the table in the most important and difficult game Madrid has played so far. He remains suspended for the game against Valencia this weekend. When Vinícius started in the Champions League, Madrid had to come from behind both against Roma and AEK to win 4-3 and 3-2 with very late winners. In both those games, the winners came after Vinícius was subbed out. The only game that Madrid won comfortably with him playing was a 4-1 home win against a limp Leipzig.

In the games without Vinícius, Real Madrid gelled far better by fielding a more balanced starting XI¹ that fit Mourinho’s 4-2-3-1 system that defends together (3 goals conceded without him on the pitch and 5 goals conceded with him on it) and counter-attacks. The midfield triumvirate of an attacking midfielder in Bellingham, a defensive midfielder in Tchouaméni, and a playmaker in Bernardo Silva presses and breaks lines. The system gives room only for one player to have a free role and that’s Mbappé, the club’s single biggest goal threat who already has 16 goals and 3 assists to validate his role. The team needs his presence up front. Everyone else defends.

Vinícius does not fit this system. He has less than one defensive contribution per 90 minutes in La Liga (only Mbappé has fewer). He hasn’t contributed offensively either, with paltry returns of 1 goal and 3 assists so far this season. By his own standards, his form is poor. So, Mourinho should persist with the XI that fits his system. If the goal is to give minutes for Vinícius to gain back his form, it must come as a substitute from the bench as needed by the game.

By contrast, Yan Diomandé has made the left wing his own during this period, making 7 goal contributions (3 goals, 4 assists) including an eye-catching performance against Barcelona, and wonder goals against RB Leipzig and Racing Santander. His defensive contributions are far superior too with more interceptions, tackles, and duels won than Vinícius. He has 3.43 defensive contributions per 90 compared to 0.90 of Vinícius.

In addition to Diomandé playing on the left, dropping Vinícius opens a spot in the XI for Arda Güler who has been Madrid’s best creator (3 goals and a team-high 5 assists). This creates more space for Mbappé to operate too without having to fight with Vinícius for room on his favored left wing. Playing both Vinícius and Diomandé won’t work either. If Diomandé plays on the right, that’d mean Bernardo will have to be dropped leading to the Three Salesmen, No Connector problem.

The case for starting Vinícius

Mourinho must start Vinícius over the next several games leading up to the game at Arsenal to help Vinícius gain back his confidence. The past seven games is a small sample and what Mourinho and Real Madrid fans must remember is what Vinícius has produced over the past seven years at Real Madrid. Vinícius is a proven match winner and has done so at the grandest stage including two Champions League finals. He plays from his heart and his skills come out of confidence. When Vinícius first came to Real Madrid, he was inconsistent and failed to fulfill his potential. What helped him get there was the arrival of Ancelotti who played him regularly. That boosted his confidence and made him the player that he is. The upcoming games against Celta, PSV, Alavés, and Athletic will serve as the perfect launchpad for Vinícius to regain his form. The minutes and confidence he can gain from these games will help him get ready for Arsenal. Given the importance of the game, Madrid must do everything it can to get one of its best players ready with the right kind of preparation.

And to aid that, Mourinho must adapt to a system that amplifies Vinícius’ attacking strength and covers his defensive frailties even if that means moving away from the 4-2-3-1. This could be by playing an additional defensive midfielder, like Camavinga, who covers the left in place of Bernardo and playing Mbappé slightly more towards the right wing in a 4-4-2 formation.

Moreover, Arsenal away would be an ideal fixture to start Vinícius. With a 4-4-2, Real Madrid can sit deep and spring rapid counter-attacks combining the devastating pace of Diomandé, Vinícius and Mbappé. The rest of the team must work to enable a match-winner like Vinícius.

The rebuttal

The strongest case for benching him is that during the current 7-game winning streak Madrid has conceded just 3 goals without Vinícius on the pitch and 5 goals with him. However, this is because the system Vinícius was played in does not suit his strengths and amplifies his weakness. During his best years at Real Madrid so far, Vinícius played with freedom on the left without having to worry about leaving room for another player. He was covered well by Mendy at left-back and was given the ball at the right place at the right time by the midfield. Attackers like Benzema, Rodrygo, and later Bellingham were available to receive his assists. This combination brought around 40 goal contributions from Vinícius and led to Madrid winning La Liga and Champions League titles. By contrast, over the past two years, Real Madrid has failed to play a system in which Mbappé and Vinícius can play together leading to largely trophyless seasons.

And the strongest case for starting him is to get Vinícius in form by the Arsenal game and to do that in the four games in between and in a new system that amplifies his strengths. This is unrealistic. Vinícius has started almost every game he was available to play in this season and his form has only gotten worse since the start of the season. And the system that Mourinho has devised is working for the club: it is winning games and conceding fewer goals than it did with Vinícius on the pitch. This system didn’t start working over the span of just four games — it took several games to shape up. Changing a system that’s working to get one player into form is the wrong trade. The goal of a system is to achieve results and to achieve results the club must play the players that are at their best. So, between now and Arsenal, Mourinho should use the time to firm up his system and get the in-form XI to play more with each other. And even if the system is changed to suit Vinícius, it is not going to be adapted by an entire squad in a month. It would lead to Real Madrid heading to London with a half-baked system and an unprepared team to face a well-oiled machine in Arsenal.

The verdict

While I agree that Mourinho must help Vinícius regain confidence and consequently his form, I remain convinced that Vinícius must be on the bench at least until the Arsenal game. His place in the starting XI must be earned through performances on the field — attacking and defensive — as the system deployed demands. Madrid cannot afford to risk losing points at this point in the season given it is still behind an imperious Barcelona team that has beaten every other team it has faced except PSG and Real Madrid. Vinícius can come off the bench as the situation demands including in the game at the Emirates. For someone looking to find form, playing against tired legs in the later stages of the game will help too. And for the club, starting the most in-form players would give it the best chance of winning titles.

This setback will motivate Real’s number 7 to be in position to help defend a shot next time.

Footnotes

1. Courtois, Valverde, Konaté, Huijsen, Cucurella, Tchouaméni, Bernardo, Güler, Bellingham, Diomandé, Mbappé ↩